Metro greenhouse gas projections at odds with B.C. goals

Ambitious provincial goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions appear to be at odds with regional projections, according to forecasts done by the former GVRD.

The province wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions by one-third by 2020. But a study on area emissions done for the regional authority, Metro Vancouver, instead suggests GHGs emissions will only level off, even with recent policy changes in place from the province and feds.

“It's not enough to get us to a 33 per cent reduction. If anything, it would stabilize emissions,” said Roger Quan, Metro Vancouver's division manager for air quality policy and management, in an interview. “We need additional measures to get to the 33 per cent reduction targets.”

There was significant fanfare surrounding last week's announcement that the province would institute a carbon tax on fuel consumption. Environmentalists lauded the plan, yet the government's own figures suggest the carbon tax will succeed in reducing GHG emissions by about 3 million tonnes a year - far short of the more than 20 million tonnes the province would need to cut in order to meet it's 33 per cent goals.

“B.C. so far has stepped up and done quite a bit of leadership on climate change but there's much more to do,” said Ian Bruce, a climate change specialist at the David Suzuki Foundation. “This reinforces that.”

For now, Quan is recommending that the region match the province and adopt a similar 33 per cent reduction goal.

“It's a very ambitious target,” Quan said. “We think it's doable. But not without some significant changes.”

But Quan admits Metro Vancouver has limited scope in cutting its own emissions. The region's two largest emission sources are buildings and cars, but it has little control over building codes and vehicle standards.